A Treatise On Probability
John Maynard Keynes
Misha Books
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552
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A Treatise on Probability (1921) by John Maynard Keynes is a groundbreaking philosophical work that redefines probability as a logical relation rather than merely a numerical frequency. Challenging the classical and frequentist interpretations, Keynes presents probability as a measure of rational belief based on incomplete information—essentially an extension of logic into conditions of uncertainty. He argues that probabilities reflect degrees of knowledge and can’t always be precisely quantified, introducing a nuanced, subjective perspective that laid the groundwork for modern Bayesian thought and decision theory.
- A pioneering work that redefines the concept of probability from a philosophical standpoint.
- Written by John Maynard Keynes before his fame as an economist.
- Challenges classical and frequentist views, proposing that probability is a degree of rational belief, not just a number.
- Emphasizes logical reasoning under uncertainty, rather than relying only on statistical data.
- Introduces the idea that some probabilities cannot be precisely quantified, only partially known.
- Serves as a bridge between logic, epistemology, and mathematics.
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