Confidence, Likelihood, Probability: Statistical Inference with Confidence Distributions
Tore Schweder Β· Nils Lid Hjort
ΡΠ΅Π²Ρ. 2016β―Π³. Β· Cambridge Series in Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics ΠΠ½ΠΈΠ³Π°Β 41 Β· Cambridge University Press
ΠΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Π°
521
ΠΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ
reportΠΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ·ΡΠ²Ρ Π½Π΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΠ΅Π½Ρ. ΠΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΎΠ±Π½Π΅Π΅β¦
ΠΠ± ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠ½ΠΈΠ³Π΅
This lively book lays out a methodology of confidence distributions and puts them through their paces. Among other merits, they lead to optimal combinations of confidence from different sources of information, and they can make complex models amenable to objective and indeed prior-free analysis for less subjectively inclined statisticians. The generous mixture of theory, illustrations, applications and exercises is suitable for statisticians at all levels of experience, as well as for data-oriented scientists. Some confidence distributions are less dispersed than their competitors. This concept leads to a theory of risk functions and comparisons for distributions of confidence. NeymanβPearson type theorems leading to optimal confidence are developed and richly illustrated. Exact and optimal confidence distribution is the gold standard for inferred epistemic distributions. Confidence distributions and likelihood functions are intertwined, allowing prior distributions to be made part of the likelihood. Meta-analysis in likelihood terms is developed and taken beyond traditional methods, suiting it in particular to combining information across diverse data sources.
ΠΠ± Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΠ΅
Tore Schweder is a Professor of Statistics in the Department of Economics and at the Centre for Ecology and Evolutionary Synthesis at the University of Oslo.
Nils Lid Hjort is Professor of Mathematical Statistics in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Oslo.
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