Panama 2000

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· National Defense University, Institute for National Strategic Studies
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When the last U.S. military element leaves Panama at noon on December 31, 1999, that departure may create a vacuum which could threaten the efficient operation of the canal and the regional security in the strategic median of the Western Hemisphere. Although the Neutrality Treaty, which continues in perpetuity, guarantees access to all vessels desiring transit of the canal on an equitable basis, the enforcement provisions are vague. The greatest fear is of the Colombianization of Panama. The U.S. departure would end almost a century of military presence on the isthmus, during which normal relations between the two countries have been at times harmonious; and at other times highly contentious-leading to the JUST CAUSE intervention in 1989. However, by 2000, the United States will "return" over $3.4 billion in lands and properties, which Panama has admitted may be beyond their capability to absorb and manage in an efficient manner. In September 1995, Presidents William Clinton and Ernesto Perez Balladares agreed to explore various options for a continued U.S. presence. Opinion is split in Panama and the United States, and the issue is being hotly debated.

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